Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A6 0xa631…b53e other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,411 (+25%) realized +$1,454 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$676now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$930
7 days+$2,353
14 days+$2,353
30 days+$2,353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$2,352
crypto 11% −$34
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.6% +14.6% 75% 75% +34.5%
≤30d 8 +26.6% +14.6% 75% 75% +34.5%
≤90d 8 +26.6% +14.6% 75% 75% +34.5%
all 8 +26.6% +14.6% 75% 75% +34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.6% 75% +34.5%
10% +3.6% 75% +21.6%
15% -6.4% 62% +9.8%
20% -15.6% 38% -0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$464 vs −$214 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.49 per $1 lost it wins $6.49
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$676
Realized+$1,454
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage7d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $500 $468 −$32 (-6%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $617 +$966 +157%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $392 −$392 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $583 +$357 +61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $564 +$391 +69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,169 +$370 +32%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $482 +$227 +47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $998 +$470 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 37¢ $113 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 22¢ $279 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $617 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $564 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $583 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $392 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,169 5d
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $482 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $517 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $998 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $676.35 · official $676.35 (match) · 27 history records