Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

A6 0xa635…5520 other 40 markets active 8h ago coverage 24d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)

Total PnL +$2,757 (+7%) realized +$2,732 · open +$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR49%break-even

Win rate63%22W / 13L

Whale WR78%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$954per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Fees−$157est.

Kalshi-fit15%portable

Net worth$3,385now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$129

7 days+$591

14 days+$1,040

30 days+$1,974

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +49%

net ROI/market (all)-10.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-5.4%	-14.4%	58%	50%	+5.6%
≤30d	35	-1.5%	-10.9%	63%	49%	-4.4%
≤90d	35	-1.5%	-10.9%	63%	49%	-4.4%
all	35	-1.5%	-10.9%	63%	49%	-4.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.9%	49%	-4.4%
10%	-19.4%	46%	-13.5%
15%	-27.2%	34%	-21.9%
20%	-34.3%	26%	-29.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 78% (≥$510) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -14% → late +10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$420 vs −$560 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.27 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage

Net worth$3,385

Realized+$2,732

Unrealized+$25

Win rate (resolved)63%

Wins / losses22 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)78%

Est. fees paid−$157

Open positions5

Markets (closed)35 / 40

History coverage24d

Avg bet$954

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 35 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	19¢	$2,500	$2,475	−$25 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	15¢	$500	$588	+$88 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	11¢	$250	$212	−$38 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	40¢	42¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$609	+$185	+30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 23	$214	−$214	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 22	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 22	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$203	+$22	+11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$306	+$140	+46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$206	+$467	+226%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	+$60	+116%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$507	+$51	+10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$102	+$24	+24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$102	+$59	+58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$11	+103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$3	+28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	+$6	+56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$7	+72%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$506	+$26	+5%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$113	−$77	-68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$255	+$135	+53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$102	+$47	+46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$1,119	+$375	+34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$101	+$5	+5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10,411	+$592	+6%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$5,129	+$5,156	+100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$5,002	+$257	+5%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 12	$5,984	−$5,984	-100%
Spurs vs. Thunder	Jun 02	$510	+$215	+42%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 31	$1,808	+$1,405	+78%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$487	−$356	-73%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$512	−$330	-65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$102	8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	93¢	$506	22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1,551	23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	39¢	$103	24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$259	25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	48¢	$103	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$101	2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$517	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$204	2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$206	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	85¢	$10	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	40¢	$10	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$102	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	85¢	$10	3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	45¢	$51	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$101	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$558	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$304	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$101	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	80¢	$102	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$203	4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$259	5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$259	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$102	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$10	5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,385.37 · official $3,385.37 (match) · 99 history records