Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa636…3c2f
crypto · 421 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$24 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$35 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses154 / 255
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions12
Markets (closed)409 / 421
History coverage37d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day60.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 12 History 409 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$141
14 days−$262
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 50¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-23%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? No 32¢ 20¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? No 44¢ 20¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-54%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 30¢ 24¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 74¢ 83¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 68¢ 50¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-26%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 73¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 27¢ 48¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+76%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 73¢ 52¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 25¢ 17¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs Mert Alkaya Mert Alkaya 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sangal ALTERS vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C Sangal ALTERS 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Spurs 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Over 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $14 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -60%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $16 −$5 -31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $230 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +6%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,073 −$41 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$5 +374%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +146%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +110%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 78% +$305
sports 9% −$80
crypto 8% −$77
tech 2% −$86
weather 1% −$2
other 1% −$16
finance 1% −$19
politics 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $5 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 28¢ $2 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $11 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 74¢ $2 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL No 6¢ $1 18h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 20h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 20h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 20h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 20h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $2 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $2 29h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 60¢ $2 29h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? SELL No 52¢ $10 29h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $2 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $2 31h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 73¢ $2 31h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $2 32h
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $5 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $2 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $9 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $4 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -25.1% -32.2% 34% 26% -14.7%
≤30d 393 -16.0% -24.0% 39% 31% -14.0%
≤90d 409 -17.2% -25.1% 38% 30% -14.3%
all 409 -17.2% -25.1% 38% 30% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 30% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 27% -22.5%
15% -38.8% 24% -30.0%
20% -44.8% 20% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.55 · official $63.55 (match) · 2289 history records