Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa638…1d87
other · 53 markets active 14d ago
0.0score
−$187,219 -104%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$185,213 · open −$1,968
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$675
Realized−$185,213
Unrealized−$1,968
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses33 / 260
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)293 / 53
History coverage45d
Avg bet$3,403
Trades / day76.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit2%
Chart Positions 1 History 293 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185,691
7 days−$185,691
14 days−$185,691
30 days−$202,680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? Yes 47¢ 12¢ $2,643 $675 −$1,968 (-74%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Linda" or "McMahon" during executive order signing events on November 13? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Biden" during executive order signing events on November 13? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $187 $0 −$187 (-100%)
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2,612 $0 −$2,612 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1,453 $0 −$1,453 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $353 $0 −$353 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "King" or "Queen" 4+ times during the UK state banquet on September 17? No 24¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $113 $0 −$113 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5,255 $0 −$5,255 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $4,703 $0 −$4,703 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? No 46¢ 0¢ $303 $0 −$303 (-100%)
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1,803 $0 −$1,803 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? No 53¢ 0¢ $8,231 $0 −$8,231 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Linda" or "McMahon" during executive Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Biden" during executive order signin Jun 12 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $187 −$187 -100%
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30? Jun 12 $2,612 −$2,180 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $353 −$37 -10%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit? Jun 12 $63 −$67 -106%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "King" or "Queen" 4+ times during the UK state banquet Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with PM of Canada o Jun 12 $11 +$43 +382%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 12 $0 −$182 -95256%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4,703 −$4,703 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $303 +$258 +85%
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? Jun 12 $1,803 −$1,852 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $8,231 −$8,231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $1,302 −$1,298 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 12 $1,607 −$1,644 -102%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Jun 12 $175 −$155 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Jun 12 $7,952 −$8,011 -101%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Jun 12 $265 −$53 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Jun 12 $15,521 −$15,521 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say TikTok during Netanyahu events on September 29? Jun 12 $50 −$43 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $8,737 −$8,737 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $3,219 −$3,168 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Jun 12 $4,621 −$4,745 -103%
Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel Jun 12 $32 −$29 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $1,957 −$1,957 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Jun 12 $3,557 −$3,745 -105%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Jun 12 $2,769 −$2,769 -100%
Will Trump say "Melania" at Christmas Tree Lighting on December 4? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Jun 12 $262 +$760 +290%
Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August Jun 12 $180 −$188 -104%
Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026? Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8? Jun 12 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during September? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Jun 12 $1,237 −$1,237 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$477
world 0% −$1,968
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $659 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $133 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $159 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $300 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $34 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $100 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $167 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $177 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $202 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $40 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $98 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $87 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $14 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $307 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $142 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $154 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $425 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $319 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-61.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 -68.2% -71.2% 6% 5% -87.1%
≤30d 251 -67.1% -70.3% 7% 6% -84.3%
≤90d 293 -57.2% -61.2% 11% 10% -54.1%
all 293 -57.2% -61.2% 11% 10% -54.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover76.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.2% 10% -54.1%
10% -64.9% 9% -58.5%
15% ← realistic here -68.3% 8% -62.5%
20% -71.4% 7% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $675.14 · official $675.14 (match) · 3500 history records