Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa639…f5e8 sports 1205 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,996 (-4%) realized −$1,997 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%497W / 683L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$234
14 days−$211
30 days−$1,427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$1,118
other 41% −$2,598
world 5% +$174
crypto 3% −$159
politics 2% −$104
tech 2% −$53
economics 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +31.3% +18.8% 10% 10% -3.7%
≤30d 421 -15.7% -23.7% 31% 30% -16.1%
≤90d 456 -14.1% -22.2% 32% 31% -15.4%
all 1180 -1.7% -11.1% 42% 42% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 42% -12.8%
10% -19.6% 40% -21.2%
15% -27.4% 38% -28.8%
20% -34.5% 34% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$25 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$1,997
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses497 / 683
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1180 / 1205
History coverage227d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $64 −$6 -9%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 16 $103 −$15 -15%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $75 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 16 $162 −$4 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 16 $127 −$4 -3%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $308 −$33 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $248 −$13 -5%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 15 $191 −$6 -3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $98 −$5 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $192 −$3 -1%
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $348 −$11 -3%
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $445 −$16 -4%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $85 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $289 −$2 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $192 −$1 -0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Ger Jun 15 $51 +$140 +273%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Jun 15 $26 +$246 +958%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $35 +$22 +63%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$7 +35%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $14 +$8 +61%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Colombia? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $15 +$18 +118%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $10 +$6 +58%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $825M and $900M at mark Jun 07 $29 −$12 -40%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $675M and $750M at mark Jun 07 $64 −$9 -14%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? Jun 07 $238 −$15 -6%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +45%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be at least $900M at market close Jun 07 $108 −$19 -17%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close Jun 07 $46 −$5 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 49m
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $63 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O BUY 16¢ $60 15h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: BUY 11¢ $51 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 14¢ $90 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Austria BUY 27¢ $146 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $58 2d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL Yes 4¢ $88 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argenti BUY 23¢ $100 2d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $74 2d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $17 2d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $45 2d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $12 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $94 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 71¢ $61 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 73¢ $52 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 73¢ $8 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 73¢ $0 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 73¢ $3 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 72¢ $10 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 73¢ $10 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 69¢ $68 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 70¢ $70 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY 32¢ $45 3d
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $20 3d
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 56¢ $23 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Belgiu BUY 20¢ $79 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sp BUY 11¢ $26 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? A BUY 12¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.82 · official $64.07 (match) · 2952 history records