Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa639…a48f other 641 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,179 (-2%) realized −$7,120 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%609W / 26L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$629per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$5,724now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$191
14 days+$831
30 days−$8,093
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$739
sports 20% −$514
world 18% −$6,038
politics 13% −$111
crypto 7% +$80
finance 3% +$47
culture 1% +$19
tech 1% +$9
weather 1% +$14
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -2.5% -11.8% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 223 -3.5% -12.7% 93% 2% -13.5%
≤90d 635 -1.6% -11.0% 96% 2% -11.2%
all 635 -1.6% -11.0% 96% 2% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 2% -11.2%
10% -19.5% 1% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here -27.3% 1% -27.4%
20% -34.4% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,050) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$496 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$5,724
Realized−$7,120
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses609 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions6
Markets (closed)635 / 641
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$629
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 635 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,422 $1,424 +$2 (+0%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,361 $1,350 −$10 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,134 $1,133 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? No 99¢ 99¢ $903 $902 −$2 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $874 $876 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $89 $39 −$50 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 18 $1,613 +$11 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,497 +$8 +0%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $247 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,314 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,009 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,501 +$16 +1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $219 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $94 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $953 +$8 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,500 +$6 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,505 +$4 +0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 17 $56 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,500 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $500 +$4 +1%
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 17 $95 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $82 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,500 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $286 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $241 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,531 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $850 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $375 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $750 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $993 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1,096 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1,160 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $985 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1,049 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1,096 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,571 +$14 +1%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,495 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,250 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,500 +$6 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $435 −$186 -43%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,502 +$11 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,500 +$8 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,500 +$8 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $229 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $234 +$1 +0%
Federico Valverde: 3+ goals Jun 16 $376 +$1 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $399 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $332 +$3 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $2,019 +$7 +0%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $366 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $486 2m
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $648 6m
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $0 6m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,620 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 100¢ $582 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 100¢ $403 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $376 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $198 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $19 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $16 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $18 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 99¢ $19 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,723.97 · official $5,724.08 (match) · 3500 history records