Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa63d…e9dc crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$137 (-5%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$133
14 days−$133
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$176
other 22% −$83
sports 10% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +15.0% +4.0% 48% 43% -17.3%
≤30d 33 +9.5% -0.9% 45% 42% -20.4%
≤90d 33 +9.5% -0.9% 45% 42% -20.4%
all 33 +9.5% -0.9% 45% 42% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 42% -20.4%
10% -10.4% 27% -28.0%
15% -19.0% 27% -34.9%
20% -27.0% 21% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$43 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage22d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $198 −$192 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $104 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $185 +$26 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $156 +$56 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $115 +$41 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $83 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $313 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $84 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $98 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $104 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $104 −$43 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $84 +$83 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 +$6 +276%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $29 +$48 +165%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $189 −$164 -86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $93 +$96 +103%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$57 +158%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $193 −$4 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $206 −$83 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $198 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $91 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $211 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $185 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $195 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $146 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $13 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records