Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa63f…b685 crypto 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,129 (-11%) realized −$1,129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate54%131W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$568
14 days−$568
30 days−$907
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$185
other 30% −$949
sports 2% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -2.4% -11.7% 80% 28% -16.8%
≤30d 56 -7.0% -15.8% 71% 32% -20.5%
≤90d 243 -16.7% -24.7% 54% 35% -20.6%
all 243 -16.7% -24.7% 54% 35% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 35% -20.6%
10% -31.9% 27% -28.2%
15% -38.5% 18% -35.1%
20% -44.5% 12% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$22 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses131 / 112
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage40d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$12 +6%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$3 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $408 +$93 +23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $316 +$92 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $151 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $150 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $151 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $503 −$339 -68%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $243 −$239 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $150 +$93 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $519 −$501 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $140 +$10 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 31 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $408 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $408 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 76¢ $316 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $202 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $201 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $232 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 588 history records