Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A6 0xa644…e875 crypto 345 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$219 (+1%) realized +$214 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate92%308W / 28L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$62
14 days+$122
30 days−$850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$115
tech 0% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +2.5% -7.3% 97% 3% -7.6%
≤30d 111 -11.7% -20.1% 84% 6% -15.3%
≤90d 270 -4.7% -13.8% 90% 5% -9.5%
all 336 -2.9% -12.1% 92% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -9.3%
10% -20.5% 1% -18.0%
15% -28.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$52 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$625
Realized+$214
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses308 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)336 / 345
History coverage112d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 19? No 95¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 18? No 97¢ 97¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? No 98¢ 97¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $116 +$7 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $250 +$7 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 17 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $197 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $229 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $121 +$15 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $151 +$17 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $175 +$19 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 04 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $406 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 88¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $105 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $101 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $153 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $200 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $50 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $100 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $100 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $100 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 82¢ $50 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $150 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $100 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $100 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $100 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $101 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $101 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $46 4d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $100 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $50 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 81¢ $51 5d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $50 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 97¢ $50 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $52 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $52 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $625.45 · official $625.56 (match) · 908 history records