Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa647…c740 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% $0
other 19% −$2
finance 5% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 31 -0.8% -10.2% 48% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage473d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 58¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $22 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $34 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $31 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 22 $34 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $34 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 12 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $2 $0 -21%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 19 $9 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will St. John's win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $17 −$5 -27%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 16 $16 +$1 +4%
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? Mar 15 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $15 $0 -2%
UMass Lowell vs. Maine Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $4 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $14 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $19 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $38 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $38 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 45h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $37 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $39 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $39 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $39 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $19 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $16 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $13 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $21 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.34 · official $33.34 (match) · 78 history records