Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:24:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa647…268d sports 310 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$82 (+2%) realized +$136 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%151W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days−$119
14 days+$12
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$119
other 7% −$57
crypto 7% −$58
culture 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -27.8% -34.6% 40% 37% -23.0%
≤30d 264 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 45% -9.1%
≤90d 299 -1.9% -11.2% 51% 49% -7.2%
all 299 -1.9% -11.2% 51% 49% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 49% -7.2%
10% -19.7% 45% -16.1%
15% -27.5% 38% -24.2%
20% -34.6% 31% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses151 / 148
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions11
Markets (closed)299 / 310
History coverage36d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 32¢ 8¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-77%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 25¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$10 +103%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$7 +67%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$8 +41%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $30 +$9 +30%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $83 +$47 +57%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +74%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 $0 -10%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 20 $3 +$20 +674%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $10 +$6 +57%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $7 +$2 +34%
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 19 $91 −$91 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 19 $17 +$2 +13%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 19 $20 +$13 +65%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$4 -84%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $10 +$4 +35%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$4 +72%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $10 +$5 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $82 +$31 +38%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $21 16m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $10 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 71¢ $17 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $10 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 76¢ $15 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $10 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $0 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $25 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $20 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 12¢ $5 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 30¢ $5 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 43¢ $10 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 66¢ $28 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $20 3h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 7h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $20 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 82¢ $9 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $5 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL Yes 33¢ $23 17h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 59¢ $13 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $10 45h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz SELL KT Wiz 1¢ $0 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 12¢ $11 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 67¢ $130 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 27¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.91 · official $55.91 (match) · 856 history records