Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa647…6af3 crypto 783 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,134 (-6%) realized −$1,120 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate37%282W / 479L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days−$75
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$2,101
sports 6% −$150
other 2% −$180
world 1% +$10
politics 0% −$30
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.3% -1.1% 57% 43% -22.8%
≤30d 12 +18.1% +6.9% 75% 42% -12.7%
≤90d 366 -20.3% -27.9% 40% 23% -13.7%
all 761 -27.6% -34.5% 37% 20% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 20% -21.7%
10% -40.8% 16% -29.2%
15% -46.5% 12% -36.0%
20% -51.7% 9% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1,120
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses282 / 479
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions22
Markets (closed)761 / 783
History coverage223d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 761 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $16 $8 −$8 (-50%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 219 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$49 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $78 +$17 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$4 -14%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $202 −$158 -78%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 +$23 +46%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 21 $46 −$4 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +113%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $151 +$50 +33%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -68%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 08 $18 +$12 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 08 $20 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 08 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 08 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 08 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 08 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 08 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 08 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 08 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 07 $52 +$79 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 07 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 07 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 6? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1 $0 -35%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1 −$1 -52%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? May 02 $105 −$27 -26%
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? May 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1 $0 -35%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1 $0 -29%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1 $0 -29%
Will Eduardo Leite finish in second place in the first round of the 20 Apr 29 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of th Apr 29 $1 −$1 -52%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1 $0 -35%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1 $0 -3%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1 $0 -3%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $2 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 17¢ $44 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 6d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $42 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $202 8d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $46 44d
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 45d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $0 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $150 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.47 · official $43.47 (match) · 2464 history records