Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa648…047e sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$249 (-6%) realized −$247 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%31W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$195
7 days+$195
14 days+$195
30 days+$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$317
crypto 38% +$85
other 5% −$8
politics 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +47.4% +33.3% 73% 73% +32.3%
≤30d 11 +47.4% +33.3% 73% 73% +32.3%
≤90d 68 -5.4% -14.4% 46% 41% -15.5%
all 68 -5.4% -14.4% 46% 41% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 41% -15.5%
10% -22.6% 40% -23.5%
15% -30.1% 35% -30.9%
20% -36.9% 29% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$35 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$247
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 37
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage49d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ 54¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$47 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $53 +$81 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$64 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 11 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 11 $36 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 11 $129 −$17 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 11 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 11 $26 $0 -2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals May 11 $89 +$119 +134%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 10 $51 +$39 +76%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Bo May 10 $106 −$105 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 10 $104 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 10 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Bo May 10 $56 −$11 -19%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs May 10 $152 −$150 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 10 $36 +$31 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 10 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 10 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 10 $41 +$40 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 10 $52 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 10 $53 −$41 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 10 $25 +$3 +10%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians May 10 $254 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 10 $105 −$13 -13%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 10 $58 +$49 +84%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres May 10 $63 +$30 +47%
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 10 $56 +$45 +81%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 10 $51 −$40 -79%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 09 $55 +$42 +76%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. May 09 $109 +$104 +96%
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds May 09 $146 +$6 +4%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 03 $122 −$108 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 03 $26 −$24 -91%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) May 03 $34 −$34 -99%
Spread: 76ers (-6.5) May 03 $41 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 37m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 38m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $91 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $27 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $28 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $124 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.59 · official $202.59 (match) · 183 history records