Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa64e…5d27 crypto 802 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$924 (-7%) realized −$920 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%481W / 310L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$6
14 days−$17
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$654
crypto 25% −$114
other 24% −$186
politics 1% −$9
world 0% +$17
weather 0% −$9
culture 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -22.3% -29.7% 49% 49% -10.1%
≤30d 50 -22.3% -29.7% 44% 44% -15.7%
≤90d 281 -12.5% -20.9% 60% 48% -19.5%
all 791 -7.4% -16.2% 61% 51% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 51% -16.3%
10% -24.2% 37% -24.3%
15% -31.6% 26% -31.6%
20% -38.3% 15% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$920
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses481 / 310
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions10
Markets (closed)791 / 802
History coverage142d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 791 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+74%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Weibo Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$23 +46%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $136 +$50 +36%
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $41 +$13 +31%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +172%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $43 +$7 +16%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $25 +$6 +22%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $40 +$14 +34%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $123 −$45 -37%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $95 +$32 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $95 +$50 +53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $50 +$20 +41%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 +$7 +134%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +474%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina BUY 72¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 81¢ $10 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $15 15h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $30 15h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 15h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $6 15h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 68¢ $50 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $70 34h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 34h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 34h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 34h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $20 34h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 35h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 67¢ $25 35h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $43 35h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $41 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.41 · official $92.41 · 2136 history records