Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:43:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa64f…bcf8 sports 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,129 (-12%) realized −$1,145 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%57W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$446
14 days−$1,397
30 days−$1,228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$1,380
other 19% +$54
crypto 7% +$252
world 1% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -2.4% -11.7% 65% 61% -23.4%
≤30d 104 -10.0% -18.5% 55% 52% -21.8%
≤90d 104 -10.0% -18.5% 55% 52% -21.8%
all 104 -10.0% -18.5% 55% 52% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 52% -21.8%
10% -26.3% 43% -29.3%
15% -33.4% 38% -36.1%
20% -40.0% 29% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$77 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$1,145
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses57 / 47
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage22d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Donstu Esports 81¢ 100¢ $67 $83 +$16 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $35 +$33 +93%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $49 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $33 +$16 +50%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 29 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $102 +$47 +46%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 29 $301 +$135 +45%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European P Jun 28 $198 +$102 +52%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $182 −$182 -100%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $110 −$109 -98%
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 28 $41 +$5 +12%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Jun 28 $16 +$4 +27%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $382 +$43 +11%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 28 $17 +$3 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $19 +$1 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $180 −$179 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $12 +$8 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 +$19 +37%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $12 +$8 +65%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $109 +$49 +45%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $12 +$8 +70%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $17 +$3 +18%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY Jun 27 $12 −$6 -46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $16 +$4 +21%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $11 +$9 +76%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $394 −$394 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $299 +$219 +73%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Spain vs. Saudi Ara Jun 21 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +93%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $295 −$192 -65%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $196 −$196 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 19 $615 −$615 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $493 +$123 +25%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $66 +$34 +52%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $138 −$138 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen BUY Donstu Esports 81¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen BUY Donstu Esports 81¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen BUY Donstu Esports 81¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen BUY Donstu Esports 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $35 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin SELL Roman Safiullin 28¢ $35 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 39¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $33 3h
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY summer bear 77¢ $153 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 4h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 69¢ $301 10h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 84¢ $182 24h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European P BUY ex-MANA eSports 66¢ $198 24h
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $110 25h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 89¢ $41 29h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 90¢ $329 31h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 90¢ $35 31h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $18 31h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 79¢ $3 31h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 79¢ $13 31h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 79¢ $79 33h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 83¢ $101 33h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $19 34h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 85¢ $17 36h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $12 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $51 39h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 41h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY DNS 59¢ $12 2d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 60¢ $12 2d
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY SELL KRX 33¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.76 · official $82.76 (match) · 368 history records