Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa653…444e
other · 42 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$182 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$165 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$144
Realized−$165
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage188d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 5 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-97%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves Cleveland Guardians 37¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians Mumbai Indians 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$53 +106%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $92 −$47 -52%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$7 -14%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 12 $41 −$41 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $25 −$18 -70%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $44 −$3 -6%
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $100 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 24 $34 −$13 -38%
Will High Point win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 22 $37 −$22 -60%
Will Trump attend UFC 323? Mar 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 31, 5PM ET Mar 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Bills (-3.5) Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers Mar 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Mar 22 $157 −$157 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 25? Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Broncos vs. Chiefs Mar 22 $16 −$12 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 22 $9 −$5 -55%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 23 $50 −$28 -55%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $110 −$41 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 21 $54 +$12 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 21 $30 −$21 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $10 +$308 +3084%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $9 +$122 +1385%
Bears vs. 49ers Dec 29 $56 −$6 -10%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? Dec 29 $20 −$11 -56%
Eagles vs. Bills Dec 28 $25 +$23 +92%
Cardinals vs. Bengals Dec 28 $18 +$18 +100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 28? Dec 27 $5 +$2 +37%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Dec 26 $32 +$16 +48%
Lighter Airdrop on December 26? Dec 26 $5 −$4 -75%
Lighter Airdrop on December 27? Dec 25 $6 −$2 -38%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22? Dec 07 $58 −$21 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$323
sports 31% −$352
world 10% −$68
crypto 10% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 10h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 10h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $46 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $44 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $37 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 35h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $41 35h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $45 35h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 35h
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 0¢ $2 23d
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $41 61d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Cleveland Guardians 37¢ $40 61d
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 80d
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 80d
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 80d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 5¢ $92 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $21 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $34 80d
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 80d
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 80d
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 80d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 80d
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 82d
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks BUY High Point Panthers 31¢ $15 83d
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks SELL High Point Panthers 27¢ $15 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 33% -9.1%
≤30d 4 -26.9% -33.8% 25% 25% -10.2%
≤90d 22 -65.6% -68.9% 5% 5% -64.2%
all 37 +50.3% +36.0% 22% 22% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.0% 22% -27.5%
10% +23.0% 19% -34.5%
15% +11.1% 19% -40.8%
20% +0.2% 14% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.88 · official $143.88 (match) · 92 history records