Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa653…e36d world 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 24% $0
sports 12% −$13
politics 10% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 10% -9.8%
≤30d 29 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 71 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 3% -9.5%
all 72 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 39
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage486d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $4 $0 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $35 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $22 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $45 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $72 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $95 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $97 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $6 $0 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $1 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $6 −$1 -10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $62 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $1 +$1 +48%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $3 $0 -5%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $61 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $97 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $3 $0 +6%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $77 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $91 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $2 $0 -11%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $46 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $20 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $82 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $46 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $46 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $46 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $22 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $47 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $47 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $7 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $10 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $0 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.34 · official $47.17 (match) · 306 history records