Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:15:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa655…9e3f sports 59 markets active 1d ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-1%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate64%38W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$941
30 days−$941
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$708
other 25% −$707
politics 6% +$24
world 5% −$84
crypto 1% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -18.0% -25.8% 60% 60% -10.4%
≤30d 13 -37.4% -43.3% 38% 38% -58.7%
≤90d 24 -48.3% -53.3% 25% 25% -62.0%
all 59 +1.4% -8.3% 64% 54% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 54% -10.8%
10% -17.0% 41% -19.4%
15% -25.1% 19% -27.1%
20% -32.4% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$79 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses38 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage253d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$18 +44%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $344 +$56 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $444 −$439 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $146 +$34 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $206 −$205 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 07 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 06 $16 −$6 -35%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 02 $198 −$100 -51%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs PSG Talon (BO1) Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 02 $10 $0 -0%
Nuggets vs. Suns Apr 02 $11 +$3 +26%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 25 $100 +$37 +37%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $100 +$25 +25%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Mar 18 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $50 +$6 +11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $543 +$134 +25%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Mar 04 $16 $0 +2%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 02 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Feb 02 $200 +$15 +7%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 30 $386 +$14 +4%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-06? Jan 07 $160 +$129 +81%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Jan 04 $200 +$22 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $151 +$41 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 02 $30 +$184 +614%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $200 +$44 +22%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $60 +$49 +81%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $102 +$26 +25%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 30 $479 +$142 +30%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 29 $147 +$43 +30%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Oct 29 $2 $0 -21%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 26 $100 +$11 +11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 26 $205 +$12 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 26 $1,000 +$42 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $100 +$26 +26%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 23 $20 +$16 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $101 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $226 31h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $31 31h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $87 31h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $444 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 77¢ $151 10d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $30 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $106 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $45 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up $5 48d
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes $5 83d
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 83d
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 83d
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 83d
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 83d
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 83d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $5 83d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $5 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records