Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa657…31a1
sports · 189 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses121 / 68
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)189 / 189
History coverage20d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day173.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 0 History 189 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lyon: Robin Bertrand vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Robin Bertrand 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $19 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $37 −$12 -32%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 +$1 +2%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $16 +$6 +39%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 09 $7 $0 +6%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $4 $0 +5%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $6 $0 +6%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $43 +$1 +3%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $16 $0 -2%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 09 $21 $0 -2%
Lyon: Robin Bertrand vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 09 $1 $0 -38%
ITF Hurghada: Valentina Ryser vs Amra Sadikovic Jun 09 $13 $0 -2%
ITF Maanshan: Jia Hu vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Jun 09 $1 −$1 -42%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $55 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-1.5) Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 +33%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $3 +$1 +28%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +55%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $11 +$1 +11%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $10 −$1 -9%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $16 $0 +3%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $12 $0 +3%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $17 +$1 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $19 +$1 +7%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 07 $48 $0 -1%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 -6%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $10 −$4 -35%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $14 −$1 -4%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 $0 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $44 $0 -1%
Libema Open, Qualification: James McCabe vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 07 $6 −$1 -10%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $12 $0 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $8 $0 +4%
Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski Jun 07 $8 +$2 +21%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $48 +$3 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $22 −$4 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $32 +$1 +2%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $31 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 39% −$5
world 31% −$2
other 11% +$5
politics 9% +$1
weather 7% $0
finance 2% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 70¢ $7 17m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 57¢ $1 18m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 57¢ $5 18m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 50¢ $5 23m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 54¢ $5 25m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 52¢ $3 31m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 56¢ $3 51m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 56¢ $3 52m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 57¢ $3 53m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 62¢ $3 55m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 56¢ $3 56m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION $0 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION $0 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION $0 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION $0 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION $0 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION $0 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION $0 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION $0 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION $0 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION $0 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION $0 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION $0 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 11¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 16¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 19¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 18¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 12¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 12¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 21¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +30.3% +17.9% 67% 12% -8.7%
≤30d 189 +7.7% -2.6% 64% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 189 +7.7% -2.6% 64% 5% -9.6%
all 189 +7.7% -2.6% 64% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover173.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 5% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -20.4% 1% -26.1%
20% -28.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records