Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa658…d047 politics 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 735d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
Total PnL −$1,027 (-5%) realized −$1,027 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate74%32W / 11L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$8
politics 24% −$3
other 24% −$2
crypto 6% −$1,075
world 0% +$60
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +102.5% +83.2% 100% 33% +185.3%
≤30d 3 +102.5% +83.2% 100% 33% +185.3%
≤90d 3 +102.5% +83.2% 100% 33% +185.3%
all 43 +5.6% -4.5% 74% 9% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 9% -14.3%
10% -13.6% 5% -22.5%
15% -21.9% 5% -30.0%
20% -29.6% 5% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +215% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$103 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

735d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$1,027
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses32 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)43 / 49
History coverage735d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30? Jun 14 $20 +$60 +300%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? Sep 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025? Sep 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots? Sep 05 $9 $0 +2%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Sep 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? Sep 05 $18 $0 +0%
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips? Mar 05 $15 $0 +1%
Sánchez resigns as PM of Spain before March? Mar 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in February? Mar 05 $55 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.27 on February 21? Feb 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump post 160 or more times on Truth Social from Feb 14-2 Feb 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21? Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.0% on February 21? Feb 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21 Feb 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will "The Diplomat" win Best Cast in a Drama Series at the 2025 SAG Aw Feb 27 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? Feb 27 $42 +$33 +79%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by next Friday? Feb 20 $5 $0 +1%
Evidence released proving JFK assassination was an inside job by Feb 1 Feb 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lebron James be traded? Feb 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 02 $4,300 −$4 -0%
Will Paul George lead the NBA in Scoring? Feb 01 $4,403 −$4 -0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Feb 01 $4,405 −$4 -0%
Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 01 $4,440 −$4 -0%
Will SOL flip XRP again in 2024? Jan 02 $1,079 −$1,079 -100%
Germany confidence vote in 2024? Dec 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kamala do better in Georgia or Wisconsin? Dec 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will PNL win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Nov 26 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Trump win Alabama by 30+ points? Nov 26 $11 $0 -0%
SpaceX Starship launch by Nov 18? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31? Nov 16 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 23? Sep 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC? Sep 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Trump conviction declared a mistrial? Aug 19 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Dina Asher-Smith (GBR) win gold in 200m W? Aug 14 $38 $0 +1%
Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? Aug 06 $25 $0 -0%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Aug 06 $11 +$2 +20%
Will the EPP win 180-189 seats in the European Parliament? Jul 19 $35 $0 +1%
zkSync airdrop by June 30? Jun 16 $65 $0 +1%
Afghanistan vs. New Guinea - Cricket T20 World Cup Jun 16 $37 +$2 +6%
2024 May hottest on record? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Did Biden shit his pants? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 282d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? BUY No 97¢ $4 282d
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel BUY No 96¢ $4 282d
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? BUY No 100¢ $18 402d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $8 402d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? BUY No 98¢ $6 402d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 100¢ $11 402d
Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots? BUY No 98¢ $9 402d
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips? BUY No 99¢ $15 472d
Will Putin meet with Trump in February? BUY No 100¢ $55 472d
Sánchez resigns as PM of Spain before March? BUY No 100¢ $22 472d
Will "The Diplomat" win Best Cast in a Drama Series at the 2025 SAG Aw BUY No 100¢ $10 479d
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? BUY Yes 56¢ $42 479d
Dogecoin above $0.27 on February 21? BUY No 93¢ $1 479d
Will Donald Trump post 160 or more times on Truth Social from Feb 14-2 BUY Yes 99¢ $1 479d
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.0% on February 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 479d
Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21? BUY No 100¢ $1 479d
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21 BUY No 100¢ $2 479d
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by next Friday? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 497d
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $4,296 497d
Will Lebron James be traded? BUY No 100¢ $27 497d
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $4,300 497d
Will Paul George lead the NBA in Scoring? SELL No 100¢ $4,399 497d
Will Paul George lead the NBA in Scoring? BUY No 100¢ $4,403 497d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.09 · official $29.09 (match) · 93 history records