Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A6 0xa658…f93e sports 1517 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$294 (+1%) realized +$287 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate70%1163W / 502L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$174est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 147d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$773
crypto 26% −$250
other 6% +$6
world 0% +$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 -62.7% -66.3% 29% 23% -70.7%
≤30d 579 -32.5% -39.0% 49% 43% -39.8%
≤90d 1455 -11.8% -20.2% 70% 44% -21.1%
all 1665 -10.6% -19.2% 70% 45% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 45% -19.9%
10% -26.9% 27% -27.6%
15% -34.0% 13% -34.6%
20% -40.4% 7% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$287
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1163 / 502
Est. fees paid−$174
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1665 / 1517
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner FOKUS 82¢ 100¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+22%)
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? No 18¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+108%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 17¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 424 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 84¢ $10 5m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 86¢ $10 12m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 79¢ $20 30m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $23 43m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 85¢ $20 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $12 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $12 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $11 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $20 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 79¢ $20 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 83¢ $20 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.14 · official $44.57 · 3500 history records