Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa65c…5154 other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10,355 (+91%) realized +$10,355 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate86%70W / 11L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$10,351
culture 6% $0
world 1% −$5
other 1% +$2
sports 0% +$6
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +128.7% +106.9% 100% 100% +106.9%
≤30d 4 +33.8% +21.1% 100% 25% +0.6%
≤90d 30 +8.9% -1.4% 87% 40% -9.8%
all 81 +4.7% -5.3% 86% 28% +73.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 28% +73.9%
10% -14.3% 15% +57.3%
15% -22.6% 11% +42.1%
20% -30.2% 7% +28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$2 · ×95.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×671.52 per $1 lost it wins $671.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$10,355
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses70 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)81 / 93
History coverage195d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 78¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 96¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 22¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $10 $0 +2%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $6 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) May 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5) May 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5) May 12 $4 +$2 +46%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5) May 11 $2 $0 +26%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Fisher College (+1.5) May 10 $2 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $1 $0 +32%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) May 10 $1 +$1 +119%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) May 09 $1 +$1 +52%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 09 $1 +$1 +105%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 09 $1 $0 +44%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Negative GDP growth in 2025? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $2 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? May 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil May 01 $2 $0 +10%
Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case? May 01 $2 $0 +12%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? May 01 $2 $0 +16%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 01 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025? May 01 $3 $0 +1%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? May 01 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 26 Feb 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 23? Feb 06 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in January? Feb 06 $2 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $4 $0 +4%
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 3? Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Jan 18 $2 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 18 $2 $0 +3%
Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 18 $3 $0 +4%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on Jan 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Suns Jan 04 $2 $0 +18%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 4h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $1 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $2 23d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 98¢ $1 31d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 98¢ $5 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.27 · official $81.27 (match) · 418 history records