trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 35 | -14.2% | -22.4% | 26% | 26% | -6.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.4% | 26% | -6.9% |
| 10% | -29.8% | 26% | -15.8% |
| 15% | -36.6% | 26% | -23.9% |
| 20% | -42.8% | 20% | -31.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $420 | $420 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $300 | $300 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $160 | $160 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 17 | $250 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 17 | $300 | $0 | -0% |
| Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 17 | $330 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 16 | $170 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 16 | $300 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 16 | $410 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 16 | $190 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 16 | $330 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 16 | $360 | −$1 | -0% |
| Hurricanes vs. Rangers | Nov 04 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Bucks | Nov 03 | $7 | +$10 | +133% |
| Jets vs. Flyers | Oct 16 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Capitals vs. Rangers | Oct 12 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Yankees vs. Twins | Sep 15 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| North Carolina State vs. Wake Forest | Sep 15 | $4 | +$1 | +37% |
| Giants vs. Rockies | Sep 01 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Red Sox vs. Orioles | Aug 28 | $15 | +$14 | +92% |
| Falcons vs. Cowboys | Aug 26 | $20 | +$14 | +70% |
| Pirates vs. Brewers | Aug 20 | $13 | +$6 | +47% |
| Twins vs. Yankees | Aug 11 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Dylan Flashner win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | Aug 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Twins vs. Tigers | Aug 06 | $6 | +$4 | +61% |
| Diamondbacks vs. Tigers | Jul 31 | $6 | +$5 | +82% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? | May 12 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 17 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 09 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Apr 07 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ana Birchall win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Everton wins the Premier League? | Feb 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Golden Knights vs. Devils | Feb 07 | $102 | +$102 | +100% |
| Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Feb 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Heat vs. 76ers | Feb 06 | $109 | +$100 | +92% |
| Mavericks vs. 76ers | Feb 05 | $102 | −$102 | -100% |
| Nets vs. 76ers | Dec 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |