Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A6 0xa65d…8da4 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$92 (+2%) realized +$92 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 26L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$880now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$4
other 22% −$3
sports 11% +$98
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 35 -14.2% -22.4% 26% 26% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 26% -6.9%
10% -29.8% 26% -15.8%
15% -36.6% 26% -23.9%
20% -42.8% 20% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$6 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$880
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage572d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $420 $420 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $160 $160 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $250 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $300 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $410 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $360 −$1 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Rangers Nov 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Warriors vs. Bucks Nov 03 $7 +$10 +133%
Jets vs. Flyers Oct 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Capitals vs. Rangers Oct 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Yankees vs. Twins Sep 15 $4 −$4 -100%
North Carolina State vs. Wake Forest Sep 15 $4 +$1 +37%
Giants vs. Rockies Sep 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Red Sox vs. Orioles Aug 28 $15 +$14 +92%
Falcons vs. Cowboys Aug 26 $20 +$14 +70%
Pirates vs. Brewers Aug 20 $13 +$6 +47%
Twins vs. Yankees Aug 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Dylan Flashner win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Aug 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Twins vs. Tigers Aug 06 $6 +$4 +61%
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Jul 31 $6 +$5 +82%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 07 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $2 $0 -3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ana Birchall win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Everton wins the Premier League? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Devils Feb 07 $102 +$102 +100%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 06 $109 +$100 +92%
Mavericks vs. 76ers Feb 05 $102 −$102 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $420 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $160 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $250 1h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $300 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $330 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $250 23h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $330 23h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $300 23h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $170 23h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $300 23h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $410 23h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $170 27h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $410 27h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $300 27h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 27h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $330 27h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $360 27h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $360 33h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $330 33h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 33h
Hurricanes vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 46¢ $16 225d
Warriors vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 43¢ $7 230d
Jets vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 45¢ $4 244d
Capitals vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 50¢ $8 247d
Yankees vs. Twins BUY Yankees 63¢ $4 275d
North Carolina State vs. Wake Forest BUY North Carolina State 73¢ $4 279d
Giants vs. Rockies BUY Rockies 45¢ $4 289d
Red Sox vs. Orioles BUY Red Sox 52¢ $15 295d
Falcons vs. Cowboys BUY Cowboys 59¢ $20 299d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $879.56 · official $879.56 (match) · 66 history records