Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa65d…5146 weather 449 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-2%) realized −$44 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%354W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day134.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 398 -2.2% -11.5% 89% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 398 -2.2% -11.5% 89% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 398 -2.2% -11.5% 89% 0% -11.7%
all 398 -2.2% -11.5% 89% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 0% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 0% -20.1%
15% -27.7% 0% -27.9%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses354 / 44
Open positions51
Markets (closed)398 / 449
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day134.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 19m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 19m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.43 · official $253.44 (match) · 852 history records