Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa661…9d2e
weather · 725 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$59 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$60 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$167
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses610 / 98
Open positions17
Markets (closed)708 / 725
Avg bet$9
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 17 History 708 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$24
14 days+$77
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? No 88¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? No 90¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? No 91¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? No 91¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 92¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? No 92¢ 97¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 90¢ 91¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 90¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 89¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? No 90¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? No 89¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $10 40m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $9 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 91¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY No 90¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 90¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $9 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 90¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $10 32h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $10 33h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 90¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $10 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +2.9% -6.9% 93% 33% -7.1%
≤30d 353 +1.4% -8.2% 92% 30% -8.4%
≤90d 708 +0.6% -9.0% 86% 33% -8.7%
all 708 +0.6% -9.0% 86% 33% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 33% -8.7%
10% -17.7% 8% -17.4%
15% -25.6% 6% -25.4%
20% -32.9% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.32 · official $167.32 (match) · 1566 history records