Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa669…9c2a other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$70 (-10%) realized −$68 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$53
sports 23% −$20
world 1% −$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -15.8% -23.9% 50% 50% -19.6%
≤30d 10 -15.8% -23.9% 50% 50% -19.6%
≤90d 13 -28.0% -34.8% 38% 38% -20.9%
all 14 -26.0% -33.0% 43% 36% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 36% -20.9%
10% -39.4% 36% -28.5%
15% -45.3% 29% -35.4%
20% -50.6% 21% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$31 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage133d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 33¢ 34¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$26 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$78 -77%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$28 +27%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $40 +$18 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $69 −$68 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $101 +$63 +62%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? May 10 $5 $0 -6%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 28 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 30h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 30h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 30h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $51 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $40 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 5d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 33¢ $26 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 7d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 47d
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 86d
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 89d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 89d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 89d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $1 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.65 · official $92.67 (match) · 29 history records