Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa66b…0b8b politics 258 markets active 2h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$679 (+4%) realized +$680 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +89% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%111W / 146L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$33
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% +$457
other 27% −$1,472
tech 17% +$3,176
world 15% −$405
crypto 11% −$1,161
finance 0% +$56
sports 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+70.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +56.6% +41.7% 100% 100% +52.5%
≤30d 4 +18.1% +6.9% 75% 75% +28.7%
≤90d 8 -6.0% -15.0% 62% 62% -15.9%
all 257 +88.8% +70.8% 43% 34% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +70.8% 34% -6.7%
10% +54.5% 28% -15.6%
15% +39.6% 22% -23.8%
20% +25.9% 20% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +89% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +77% → late +101% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$38 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$680
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses111 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage628d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes $9 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 27 $28 +$25 +89%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 27 $11 +$5 +42%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $9 +$3 +39%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 07 $11 +$4 +34%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $39 −$37 -94%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $5 −$4 -80%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $18 +$4 +20%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 05 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 04 $13 −$7 -55%
Will Google’s Gemini 3 Pro win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition? Dec 27 $24 −$22 -90%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? Dec 27 $511 −$312 -61%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 26 $38 −$28 -73%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 24 $29 −$6 -22%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 24 $52 −$36 -69%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15? Dec 13 $145 +$9 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 11 $8 $0 +6%
Will WLD hit $1.3 by December 31? Dec 11 $235 −$158 -67%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Dec 10 $540 −$198 -37%
Aster all time high by December 31? Dec 10 $1,918 −$1,062 -55%
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? Dec 09 $25 −$18 -72%
Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition? Dec 03 $14 −$11 -82%
Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30? Dec 03 $23 −$7 -32%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Dec 03 $625 −$342 -55%
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition? Dec 02 $35 +$42 +120%
Will AutoSnore: Snoring Recorder be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App St Dec 02 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Decembe Dec 02 $181 +$156 +86%
Will Kimi’s Kimi K2 Thinking win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competitio Dec 02 $14 −$13 -93%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 29 $87 +$3 +4%
Will Palantir reach $210 in November? Nov 29 $10 +$48 +491%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 29 $16 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.5 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 comp Nov 27 $6 −$1 -13%
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition? Nov 27 $49 +$51 +104%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? Nov 27 $10 −$6 -60%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) Nov 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Nov 22 $13 −$10 -75%
Over $15M committed to the VOOI public sale? Nov 21 $22 +$7 +33%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20? Nov 21 $2 −$1 -98%
Will My Aurora Forecast Pro be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store o Nov 21 $3 −$1 -46%
Will Fartcoin hit $0.7 by December 31? Nov 20 $38 +$29 +78%
Over $20M committed to the VOOI public sale? Nov 20 $114 +$20 +18%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novembe Nov 19 $299 +$17 +6%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 18 $6 +$2 +23%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1B and $1.2? Nov 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $800M and $1B? Nov 18 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.4B and $1.6B? Nov 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.6B and $1.8B? Nov 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.2B and $1.4B? Nov 18 $18 $0 +0%
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 18 $73 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 73¢ $52 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 89¢ $16 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $12 11h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 32¢ $8 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 62¢ $11 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 41¢ $5 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes $9 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 41¢ $5 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 39¢ $10 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $0 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 77¢ $15 51d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 56¢ $11 52d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes $0 57d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes $1 57d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes $0 58d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes $2 58d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes $22 68d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes $2 71d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes $9 71d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes $2 72d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes $18 73d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes $6 73d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes $3 73d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes $2 74d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 75d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes $5 75d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes $15 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.07 · official $7.07 (match) · 2069 history records