trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Germany (-5.5) | Curaçao | 82¢ | 82¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) | Japan | 91¢ | 90¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Spread: Germany (-4.5) | Curaçao | 69¢ | 68¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 23¢ | 20¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-15%) |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Scotland (-2.5) | Jun 14 | $17 | +$3 | +16% |
| Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $10 | +$2 | +18% |
| Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) | Jun 12 | $10 | +$1 | +5% |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | May 30 | $10 | +$3 | +26% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 24 | $12 | −$12 | -98% |
| Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem | May 19 | $125 | +$3 | +2% |
| Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? | May 13 | $117 | +$3 | +2% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) | BUY Japan | 91¢ | $20 | 1h |
| Spread: Germany (-5.5) | BUY Curaçao | 82¢ | $20 | 1h |
| Spread: Germany (-4.5) | BUY Curaçao | 69¢ | $20 | 1h |
| Spread: Scotland (-2.5) | BUY Haiti | 86¢ | $17 | 8h |
| Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) | BUY Czechia | 95¢ | $10 | 2d |
| Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) | BUY Czechia | 84¢ | $10 | 2d |
| Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY Yes | 23¢ | $10 | 12d |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | BUY Arsenal FC | 79¢ | $10 | 17d |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY Yes | 30¢ | $12 | 21d |
| Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem | BUY Yes | 98¢ | $125 | 31d |
| Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? | BUY Yes | 98¢ | $108 | 70d |
| Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? | BUY Yes | 98¢ | $10 | 70d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +13.2% | +2.4% | 100% | 67% | +2.9% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -5.4% | -14.4% | 83% | 50% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 86% | 43% | -9.3% |
| all | 7 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 86% | 43% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.4% | 43% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -21.7% | 14% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -29.3% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -36.2% | 0% | -33.1% |