Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A6 0xa66c…554e sports 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized +$43 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate98%133W / 3L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$43
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$37
other 14% −$3
politics 9% +$6
tech 5% +$1
finance 4% +$1
world 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +3.8% -6.1% 98% 9% -7.8%
≤30d 136 +2.5% -7.3% 98% 8% -8.1%
≤90d 136 +2.5% -7.3% 98% 8% -8.1%
all 136 +2.5% -7.3% 98% 8% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 8% -8.1%
10% -16.2% 4% -16.9%
15% -24.3% 2% -24.9%
20% -31.7% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses133 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 139
History coverage9d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
StarCraft II: Scarlett vs Kelazhur - Map 2 Winner Scarlett 99¢ 90¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Border" during Tele-Rally? Jun 26 $54 +$1 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-6.5) vs Sashi Esport (+6 Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Louisiana" 5+ times during Tele-Rally? Jun 26 $49 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Jun 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New Jun 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-6.5) vs Inner Circle Esports (+6 Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-3.5) vs Inner Circle Esports (+3 Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-3.5) vs Sashi Esport (+3 Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA W Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-3.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+3.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the South Afr Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Jecan/Pavel vs Loof/Uesugi Jun 25 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the South Africa vs So Jun 25 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Darden Restaurants say "Quarter" 10+ times during earnings call? Jun 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Tajon Buchanan: 4+ shots Jun 25 $44 +$1 +2%
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Jacob Shaffelburg: 3+ shots Jun 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Czechia v Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wor Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wor Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in June 2026? Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF Jun 25 $56 +$8 +14%
Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots Jun 25 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target Jun 25 $6 $0 +1%
Indios de Mayaguez vs. Atleticos de San German Jun 25 $9 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
StarCraft II: Scarlett vs Kelazhur - Map 2 Winner BUY Scarlett 99¢ $35 1h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 11h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 11h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 11h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 11h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 11h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 12h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 12h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 12h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $15 12h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $70 12h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor BUY Yes 98¢ $100 12h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New BUY No 99¢ $99 12h
Will Trump say "Border" during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 13h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-6.5) vs Sashi Esport (+6 BUY Sashi Esport 99¢ $5 13h
Will Trump say "Louisiana" 5+ times during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 99¢ $49 14h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA BUY Yes 99¢ $54 14h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-6.5) vs Inner Circle Esports (+6 BUY Inner Circle Esports 99¢ $5 14h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 14h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-3.5) vs Inner Circle Esports (+3 BUY Inner Circle Esports 99¢ $5 14h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-3.5) vs Sashi Esport (+3 BUY Sashi Esport 99¢ $5 14h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA W BUY Yes 99¢ $100 14h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-3.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+3.5 BUY Infinite 99¢ $5 15h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 15h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 16h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 16h
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the South Afr BUY No 99¢ $100 18h
Set 1 Winner: Jecan/Pavel vs Loof/Uesugi BUY Loof/Uesugi 98¢ $102 20h
Tajon Buchanan: 4+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $44 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.28 · official $36.28 (match) · 276 history records