Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa670…55d2 sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,158 (-14%) realized −$3,152 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$372per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$251est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$974now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$342
7 days+$19
14 days−$2,571
30 days−$3,207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$3,099
other 13% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -4.8% -13.9% 57% 51% -9.4%
≤30d 59 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 47% -23.2%
≤90d 59 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 47% -23.2%
all 59 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 47% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 47% -23.2%
10% -20.0% 46% -30.5%
15% -27.7% 36% -37.2%
20% -34.8% 24% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$551) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$323 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$974
Realized−$3,152
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$251
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage18d
Avg bet$372
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 89¢ 88¢ $979 $974 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $757 −$757 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,382 +$368 +27%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $141 +$49 +35%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $166 −$2 -1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $143 +$92 +64%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 25 $81 +$23 +29%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich Jun 25 $182 +$48 +27%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $72 −$71 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola Jun 25 $170 −$170 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $207 −$205 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $291 +$129 +44%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $391 −$391 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $125 +$160 +127%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $449 +$211 +47%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva Jun 24 $424 −$88 -21%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson Jun 24 $130 +$50 +39%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $189 +$116 +61%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $1,087 −$1,087 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $551 +$184 +33%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $630 +$210 +33%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $181 +$38 +21%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $254 +$16 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $86 +$66 +77%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $220 −$215 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $137 +$304 +223%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 23 $594 −$594 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $1,116 +$24 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,003 +$697 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $566 +$814 +144%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $336 +$154 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $954 −$954 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $748 +$950 +127%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $60 +$40 +66%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $353 −$348 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $680 −$680 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $482 −$482 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,129 −$1,116 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $407 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $660 −$660 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $521 −$520 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $708 +$492 +70%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $407 −$407 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $312 +$488 +156%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $496 −$8 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $982 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $757 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 69¢ $21 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 70¢ $141 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 60¢ $58 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 60¢ $1 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 60¢ $75 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 60¢ $30 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $166 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 79¢ $1,382 32h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 32¢ $72 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 64¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 64¢ $126 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 64¢ $42 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios BUY Dane Sweeny 61¢ $143 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 64¢ $207 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Nicolas Mejia 77¢ $81 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Ethan Quinn 95¢ $114 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 16¢ $10 2d
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich BUY Felix Balshaw 79¢ $182 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 23¢ $25 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 23¢ $4 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 23¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 51¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 51¢ $142 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 51¢ $240 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Ethan Quinn 59¢ $177 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 25¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 25¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 11¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $973.50 · official $973.50 (match) · 266 history records