Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A6 0xa672…6b31 sports 296 markets active 18h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,609 (-10%) realized −$4,630 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%171W / 114L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$368est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,609now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$1,523
14 days−$528
30 days−$4,632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$3,439
world 10% −$140
other 10% −$1,260
crypto 0% +$20
politics 0% −$72
weather 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -19.7% -27.3% 55% 49% -27.4%
≤30d 262 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 56% -20.6%
≤90d 285 -6.9% -15.8% 60% 54% -20.1%
all 285 -6.9% -15.8% 60% 54% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 54% -20.1%
10% -23.8% 43% -27.7%
15% -31.2% 31% -34.7%
20% -37.9% 20% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$136 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$1,609
Realized−$4,630
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses171 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$368
Open positions11
Markets (closed)285 / 296
History coverage49d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $350 $369 +$19 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $321 $265 −$56 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $172 $215 +$43 (+25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $225 $209 −$16 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $158 $205 +$47 (+30%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $177 $133 −$44 (-25%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $104 $113 +$9 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $69 $89 +$20 (+29%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 74¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 24¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $372 −$372 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $491 −$491 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $610 −$610 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$55 +27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$42 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$44 +43%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $909 +$453 +50%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $152 −$75 -49%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $131 −$131 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $607 −$607 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$76 +75%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $101 +$87 +86%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$71 +70%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 12 $98 +$83 +85%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$28 +28%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $202 +$70 +35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $705 +$209 +30%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $101 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $202 +$105 +52%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $101 +$39 +38%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $51 +$56 +109%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $101 +$31 +31%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $202 +$85 +42%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $100 +$8 +8%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $101 −$31 -31%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $100 +$17 +17%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $203 +$154 +76%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $100 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $101 +$22 +21%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs INFURITY Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 24¢ $1 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $1 21h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 92¢ $1 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 27¢ $10 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 85¢ $171 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 82¢ $101 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $256 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $100 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $201 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $143 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $145 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 69¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $508 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $289 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $202 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $1,362 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 67¢ $808 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $178 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $188 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $172 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 58¢ $101 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $101 4d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato SELL Emma Ottavia Ghirardato 100¢ $181 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 80¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,609.18 · official $1,609.18 (match) · 784 history records