Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A6 0xa672…74ae other 32 markets active 3d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$24 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$247
14 days−$135
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$229
sports 49% +$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -57.4% -61.5% 19% 19% -41.6%
≤30d 24 -23.0% -30.3% 42% 42% -13.5%
≤90d 29 -3.7% -12.9% 52% 52% -9.1%
all 29 -3.7% -12.9% 52% 52% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 52% -9.1%
10% -21.2% 45% -17.8%
15% -28.8% 34% -25.8%
20% -35.8% 21% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$29 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage36d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $199 −$193 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -57%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$20 +20%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +246%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $240 +$52 +22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 +$69 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 +$81 +81%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $60 −$59 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $5 +$11 +206%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $100 +$33 +33%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $60 +$18 +30%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $40 +$16 +40%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $20 +$10 +49%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 16 $20 +$18 +89%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $10 +$15 +151%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $9 +$10 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 37¢ $197 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $2 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $2 4d
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes $2 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $240 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $200 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $100 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $60 11d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $100 22d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 76¢ $20 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 75¢ $20 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 75¢ $20 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.97 · official $15.97 (match) · 58 history records