trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $19 | −$11 | -59% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $20 | +$17 | +82% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $14 | +$16 | +114% |
| Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? | Jun 12 | $10 | +$21 | +216% |
| Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Mar 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Mar 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Khamenei seen in public by March 1? | Mar 12 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 1? | Mar 12 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +88.1% | +70.2% | 75% | 75% | +51.4% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +88.1% | +70.2% | 75% | 75% | +51.4% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +88.1% | +70.2% | 75% | 75% | +51.4% |
| all | 8 | -5.9% | -14.9% | 38% | 38% | -13.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.9% | 38% | -13.6% |
| 10% | -23.0% | 38% | -21.9% |
| 15% | -30.5% | 38% | -29.5% |
| 20% | -37.3% | 38% | -36.4% |