Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A6 0xa67b…affc crypto 70 markets active 14h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$742 (+14%) realized +$740 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%38W / 27L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$210
14 days+$606
30 days+$606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$667
sports 4% −$61
politics 1% −$2
world 1% +$4
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 55% -3.1%
≤30d 65 +17.5% +6.3% 58% 51% +1.3%
≤90d 65 +17.5% +6.3% 58% 51% +1.3%
all 65 +17.5% +6.3% 58% 51% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 51% +1.3%
10% -3.8% 43% -8.4%
15% -13.1% 35% -17.2%
20% -21.6% 26% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$55 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$740
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses38 / 27
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)65 / 70
History coverage11d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$24 +23%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$65 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$93 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$82 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$50 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $204 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$74 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$75 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$61 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$109 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$85 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $105 +$236 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$37 +36%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $105 −$95 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $103 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $305 +$44 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$152 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$167 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $27 +$166 +625%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 +$73 +712%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$6 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 19h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $10 19h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $63 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $75 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $55 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.51 · official $71.51 (match) · 163 history records