Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa67d…dbec crypto 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$926 (-8%) realized +$783 · open −$1,709
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$3,251
other 13% −$686
sports 3% +$401
world 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -12.6% -21.0% 25% 24% -29.3%
≤30d 55 -12.6% -21.0% 25% 24% -29.3%
≤90d 55 -12.6% -21.0% 25% 24% -29.3%
all 55 -12.6% -21.0% 25% 24% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 24% -29.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 24% -36.1%
15% -35.4% 22% -42.3%
20% -41.8% 20% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$304 vs −$149 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$783
Unrealized−$1,709
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)55 / 64
History coverage1d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Up 19¢ 6¢ $421 $146 −$275 (-65%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 9¢ 2¢ $312 $72 −$240 (-77%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $250 $1 −$249 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $393 $1 −$392 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $250 $1 −$249 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $268 −$268 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $465 +$265 +57%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $103 +$607 +589%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $527 −$527 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $349 −$349 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $372 +$771 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $228 −$228 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $212 +$572 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $446 −$446 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $106 +$141 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $106 +$123 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $224 −$224 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $212 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $106 +$411 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $290 −$290 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $159 +$713 +447%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $265 −$265 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $54 +$24 +44%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $258 +$254 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $116 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $67 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $67 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $106 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $267 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $130 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $137 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $263 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $416 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $918 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $280 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $372 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $339 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $270 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $641 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $424 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $258 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $258 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $107 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $710 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 4¢ $107 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $132 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.92 · official $318.24 (match) · 156 history records