Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:09:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa67f…3c3d
weather · 736 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$171 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$171 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$430
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses666 / 49
Open positions21
Markets (closed)715 / 736
History coverage89d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 21 History 715 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$9
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? No 98¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? No 92¢ 88¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 25? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or higher on March 27? No 94¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $56 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $49 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $24 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +0.3% -9.2% 91% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 303 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 715 -0.0% -9.5% 93% 0% -8.9%
all 715 -0.0% -9.5% 93% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -8.9%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.06 · official $430.06 (match) · 1707 history records