Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A6 0xa67f…b74e other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,515 (-1%) realized −$1,516 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,115per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$10
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$48
politics 40% −$55
sports 5% −$1,423
economics 2% −$2
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -1.9% -11.3% 4% 0% -11.4%
all 101 -1.3% -10.7% 8% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -10.8%
10% -19.2% 5% -19.3%
15% -27.0% 4% -27.1%
20% -34.2% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,356) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$21 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$1,178
Realized−$1,516
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage116d
Avg bet$1,115
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $702 $703 +$1 (+0%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $476 $476 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $1,418 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $341 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,596 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,972 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,651 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $999 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 04 $302 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 04 $437 $0 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,841 −$4 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,211 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,214 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $2,575 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,233 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $1,309 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,528 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,303 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,565 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,840 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,316 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $3,433 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,337 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,240 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,272 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $476 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $346 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $346 4h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $485 5h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $486 8h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $372 27h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $373 29h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $341 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $341 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $509 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $510 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $463 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $463 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $559 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $560 9d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $702 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,037 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,049 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,050 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,139 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,141 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,267 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,269 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,309 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,311 20d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,249 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,251 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,178.18 · official $1,178.18 (match) · 305 history records