Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa680…3384 sports 929 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$454 (+0%) realized +$458 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%883W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$271est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$127
14 days+$345
30 days+$896
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$159
other 6% +$240
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +0.8% -8.8% 93% 10% -9.0%
≤30d 485 +1.0% -8.6% 95% 8% -8.6%
≤90d 926 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 7% -9.4%
all 926 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 7% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$154 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$597
Realized+$458
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses883 / 43
Est. fees paid−$271
Open positions3
Markets (closed)926 / 929
History coverage56d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 926 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Mayar Sherif 97¢ 100¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser Jeline Vandromme 99¢ 100¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Ann Li 93¢ 88¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Leo Raquillet Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $200 −$96 -48%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 18 $200 +$15 +7%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $200 +$8 +4%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $200 +$12 +6%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $201 −$102 -51%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $200 +$10 +5%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $201 +$24 +12%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $200 +$12 +6%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $201 +$37 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $201 +$29 +14%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $74 +$1 +1%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $201 −$123 -61%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $200 +$10 +5%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $201 +$40 +20%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $200 +$12 +6%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $200 +$17 +8%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 16 $200 +$8 +4%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $200 +$12 +6%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $201 +$19 +10%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $200 +$12 +6%
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $200 +$17 +8%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 16 $124 +$1 +1%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $14 +$2 +12%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $52 +$2 +4%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 93¢ $200 3m
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 97¢ $200 29m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Max Alcala Gurri 52¢ $41 41m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Max Alcala Gurri 52¢ $63 41m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser BUY Jeline Vandromme 99¢ $200 44m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 98¢ $200 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Leo Raquillet BUY Kilian Feldbausch 99¢ $200 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 94¢ $200 4h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 96¢ $200 4h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Michele Ribecai 99¢ $200 5h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 99¢ $200 5h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Juan Estevez 99¢ $200 19h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 43¢ $11 20h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 43¢ $45 20h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 44¢ $44 20h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 86¢ $201 21h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Yi Zhou 97¢ $200 22h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 95¢ $200 22h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 89¢ $201 23h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Guido Justo 99¢ $200 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 94¢ $200 24h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 97¢ $200 24h
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 84¢ $201 24h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 87¢ $201 25h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Marco Cecchinato 99¢ $200 28h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 99¢ $5 28h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 99¢ $74 41h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa SELL Allura Zamarripa 34¢ $1 44h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa SELL Allura Zamarripa 36¢ $77 44h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 95¢ $200 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $597.11 · official $596.17 (match) · 1869 history records