Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A6 0xa681…8b89 crypto 469 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$625 (+4%) realized +$818 · open −$193
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%149W / 307L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$244
7 days+$124
14 days+$70
30 days−$1,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$524
crypto 41% −$961
world 6% +$1,742
other 3% −$146
economics 0% −$10
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -4.3% -13.4% 30% 29% -7.2%
≤30d 407 +2.8% -7.0% 33% 33% -17.3%
≤90d 447 +0.4% -9.2% 32% 32% -7.7%
all 456 +2.8% -7.0% 33% 32% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 32% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 32% -15.9%
15% -24.0% 32% -24.1%
20% -31.4% 31% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$29 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$516
Realized+$818
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses149 / 307
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions13
Markets (closed)456 / 469
History coverage102d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 456 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $143 $196 +$53 (+37%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $111 $100 −$10 (-9%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $80 $62 −$18 (-22%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+117%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 26¢ 10¢ $26 $10 −$16 (-62%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $21 $4 −$16 (-79%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $105 $4 −$101 (-96%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $45 $3 −$42 (-94%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $40 $2 −$38 (-96%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-77%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 292 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $90 +$110 +122%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $160 +$139 +87%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $82 −$82 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $105 +$195 +186%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $210 +$286 +136%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $117 −$117 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $153 −$153 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $25 +$44 +178%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $92 −$92 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $70 +$126 +180%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $126 +$102 +81%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $118 +$372 +316%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $112 −$112 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $108 −$108 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $71 −$71 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $92 −$92 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $182 +$218 +120%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 +$50 +100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $63 +$37 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$92 +1840%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $75 +$123 +164%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $78 +$118 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$18 -96%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $428 +$277 +65%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $46 +$99 +213%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $111 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $91 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $19 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $8 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $11 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 60¢ $120 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $45 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $0 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $45 3h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $6 3h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $90 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $105 22h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 23h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $32 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $16 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $6 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $515.76 · official $518.76 (match) · 2352 history records