Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A6 0xa683…6692 other 506 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$60 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate79%395W / 106L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$146
14 days−$191
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$2
crypto 10% −$5
weather 3% +$5
tech 3% +$4
sports 2% −$123
politics 2% +$2
culture 1% +$1
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +23.5% +11.8% 43% 41% -15.6%
≤30d 99 +5.3% -4.8% 53% 26% -13.0%
≤90d 218 +4.5% -5.5% 77% 17% -10.0%
all 501 +2.1% -7.6% 79% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 7% -9.6%
10% -16.4% 5% -18.3%
15% -24.5% 4% -26.2%
20% -31.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized−$60
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses395 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions5
Markets (closed)501 / 506
History coverage188d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winner CHAOS 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Dominion Nation 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Noir Esports 51¢ 50¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 7¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 +$21 +66%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$84 +165%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $50 −$24 -48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $0 +$2 +1558%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $21 +$19 +87%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $11 +$42 +388%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $34 +$25 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$9 -18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$16 -32%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $26 +$4 +17%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $32 +$17 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $46 −$4 -8%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $51 +$33 +65%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $11 +$8 +76%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $50 +$96 +193%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $47 +$11 +23%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $50 +$27 +54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $50 +$48 +95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 +$26 +57%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 +$70 +149%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $83 +$71 +85%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $38 −$2 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $43 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $37 −$1 -4%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$51 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winner BUY CHAOS 51¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 51¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Noir Esports 51¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winner BUY CHAOS 38¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Noir Esports 51¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 7¢ $0 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $49 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 60¢ $53 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 35¢ $32 6h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Noir Esports 51¢ $16 7h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $48 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $134 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $4 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $47 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $3 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $47 14h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $50 15h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 15h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 52¢ $50 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $47 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 47¢ $4 15h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $26 15h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $50 15h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 6¢ $0 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $10 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $11 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $11 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $11 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $52 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $11 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.66 · official $169.66 (match) · 1288 history records