Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa683…590b other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 25% +$4
politics 12% $0
crypto 7% −$4
finance 7% −$1
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -8.9% -17.6% 18% 9% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -8.9% -17.6% 18% 9% -9.9%
all 34 -4.1% -13.2% 41% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 6% -9.7%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage468d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $14 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $32 −$2 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 22 $30 −$2 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $11 $0 +3%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $12 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Apr 03 $6 −$5 -80%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $16 $0 +1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $33 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $33 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 9h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $37 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $37 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $14 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 31¢ $25 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 28¢ $10 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 28¢ $13 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $2 26d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $27 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $21 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $29 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $27 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $5 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $2 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $31 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $8 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $38 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $15 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $20 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 28d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $1 337d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records