Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa685…8f6b crypto 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$113 (+9%) realized +$69 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%44W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$81
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -7.3% -16.2% 62% 57% -6.0%
≤30d 74 -10.4% -18.9% 59% 54% -6.9%
≤90d 74 -10.4% -18.9% 59% 54% -6.9%
all 74 -10.4% -18.9% 59% 54% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 54% -6.9%
10% -26.7% 41% -15.8%
15% -33.7% 30% -24.0%
20% -40.2% 20% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses44 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage17d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$14 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $33 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $37 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $20 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $32 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $32 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.75 · official $148.65 · 164 history records