Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa687…e0e2 sports 293 markets active 5d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+2%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%154W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$175
crypto 21% −$29
other 9% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -3.0% -12.2% 56% 54% -13.5%
≤30d 248 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 48% -14.0%
≤90d 293 -6.8% -15.7% 53% 45% -16.9%
all 293 -6.8% -15.7% 53% 45% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 45% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 39% -24.8%
15% -31.1% 35% -32.1%
20% -37.9% 24% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses154 / 139
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)293 / 293
History coverage26d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 293 Trades
no open positions (95 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$7 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$8 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$8 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$7 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 908 history records