Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa68b…5581 other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$22
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$16
politics 22% −$13
sports 20% −$7
crypto 8% −$4
world 6% −$3
finance 6% −$10
economics 5% −$3
culture 3% −$5
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.6% -10.0% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 63 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 119 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 135 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 120
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage99d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 16 $59 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $56 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $92 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $52 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $255 −$2 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $215 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $49 $0 -1%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $49 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $63 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 07 $46 −$1 -3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $104 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $49 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $112 −$1 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $167 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $49 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $55 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $33 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $22 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $11 5h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $57 6h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $58 11h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $59 12h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $59 17h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 17h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 25h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $55 26h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $56 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $51 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 43h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $52 44h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $28 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $24 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $60 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 2d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $64 2d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $64 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $47 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $48 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $46 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $46 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.97 · official $39.97 (match) · 467 history records