Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:55:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa68b…8802 crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-4%) realized −$65 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%32W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$142
other 18% −$66
sports 2% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 38% -17.6%
≤30d 85 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 38% -17.6%
≤90d 85 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 38% -17.6%
all 85 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 38% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 38% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 38% -25.5%
15% -23.1% 38% -32.7%
20% -30.6% 38% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$20 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses32 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $69 $68 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 +$39 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$15 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$43 +138%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$36 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$52 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$50 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$38 +121%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$28 +91%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$36 +711%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $1 +$2 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$15 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$27 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$54 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$55 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$18 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$43 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $67 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 10h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 12h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.65 · official $67.65 (match) · 133 history records