Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa690…8898 sports 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 717d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$713 (-8%) realized −$713 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate76%73W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$810
7 days−$752
14 days−$908
30 days−$908
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$116
other 41% −$955
crypto 6% +$5
tech 4% −$22
world 2% +$9
culture 0% +$136
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +0.3% -9.2% 92% 35% -19.4%
≤30d 72 -25.2% -32.3% 68% 25% -21.1%
≤90d 76 -23.8% -31.1% 70% 24% -20.4%
all 96 +1.5% -8.2% 76% 27% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 27% -16.9%
10% -17.0% 14% -24.8%
15% -25.0% 8% -32.1%
20% -32.3% 6% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$59 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$515
Realized−$713
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses73 / 23
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)96 / 99
History coverage717d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Argentina 97¢ 97¢ $412 $412 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? No 97¢ 97¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) Austria 99¢ 98¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $119 +$1 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Boyer vs Olivieri Jun 22 $51 +$2 +5%
Sachko vs. Mochizuki: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $22 $0 +1%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? Jun 22 $951 −$951 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Brancaccio vs Gea Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Emam Ashour: 3+ goals Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Ben Waine: 2+ goals Jun 22 $233 +$11 +5%
Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals Jun 22 $169 +$6 +4%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 22 $90 +$1 +1%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $478 +$8 +2%
Josh Bell: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $24 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $216 +$9 +4%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals Jun 21 $471 +$29 +6%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $240 +$10 +4%
Álex Grimaldo: 2+ goals Jun 21 $261 +$14 +5%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $31 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $44 +$1 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $136 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Parry vs. Begu: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $74 +$1 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Molcan vs Cassone Jun 21 $94 +$6 +6%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs. Keshav Chopra: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Dellavedova vs. Roh: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 21 $124 +$1 +1%
Takefusa Kubo: 4+ shots Jun 21 $382 +$18 +5%
Carson Kelly: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $24 +$1 +3%
Tijjani Reijnders: 3+ goals Jun 20 $48 +$2 +4%
Tijjani Reijnders: 2+ goals Jun 20 $283 +$17 +6%
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $49 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $27 +$1 +4%
Set 2 Winner: Pliskova vs Bouzkova Jun 20 $73 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 19 $64 +$11 +18%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 19 $123 +$27 +22%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Max Purcell Jun 19 $123 −$123 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Aoran Wang Jun 19 $62 +$13 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $67 +$8 +12%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $73 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $67 +$8 +12%
ITF Mohammedia: Farhat Aleen Qamar vs Vaidehee Chaudhari Jun 18 $66 +$9 +14%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Jun 18 $120 +$30 +25%
ITF Kayseri: Felix Roussel vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Mandegar Farzami vs Lan Mi Jun 17 $61 +$14 +24%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $59 +$16 +27%
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu Jun 17 $64 +$10 +16%
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Keisuke Saitoh Jun 17 $62 +$14 +22%
ITF Tokyo: Azuma Visaya vs Naoya Honda Jun 17 $122 +$28 +24%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $89 +$11 +12%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $60 +$15 +25%
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $261 +$39 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $52 9m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $52 9m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $52 9m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $52 10m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $52 10m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $52 10m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $52 11m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $52 11m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY No 97¢ $53 14m
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) BUY Austria 99¢ $51 16m
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $14 1h
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $52 1h
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $52 1h
Set 2 Winner: Boyer vs Olivieri BUY Boyer 95¢ $51 1h
Sachko vs. Mochizuki: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $15 1h
Sachko vs. Mochizuki: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 98¢ $7 1h
Set 2 Winner: Brancaccio vs Gea BUY Gea 99¢ $25 2h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $24 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $514.55 · official $514.37 (match) · 378 history records