Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa691…b2e0
politics · 154 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 144
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage159d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $198 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 19 $82 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $122 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $130 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $323 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 14 $203 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $47 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 14 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 26% −$2
politics 23% −$1
sports 19% −$1
crypto 11% −$1
economics 9% −$1
tech 4% $0
world 4% $0
culture 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $41 13d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $41 13d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $43 26d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $43 28d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $44 113d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $45 113d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $40 113d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $40 113d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $42 113d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $42 113d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $39 113d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $39 113d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $40 113d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $40 113d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $38 113d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $38 113d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 113d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 113d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $42 113d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $42 113d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $38 113d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $38 113d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $44 113d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $44 113d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 113d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 113d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $43 113d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $43 113d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $44 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
all 153 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.61 · official $39.61 (match) · 513 history records