trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 33% | 0% | -10.8% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 25% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +4.3% | -5.6% | 36% | 7% | -9.2% |
| all | 21 | +3.6% | -6.2% | 43% | 10% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.2% | 10% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -15.2% | 10% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -23.4% | 10% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -30.9% | 10% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 86¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-79%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 24 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 24 | $36 | −$1 | -3% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 26 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $78 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $3 | $0 | -17% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 25 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $6 | +$5 | +84% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 24 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 22 | $31 | $0 | +1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 20 | $32 | −$1 | -2% |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | May 19 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 19 | $32 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Jun 27 | $7 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? | Apr 20 | $7 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 24 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 5? | Mar 05 | $4 | −$3 | -86% |
| Oklahoma State vs. UCF | Mar 05 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Austin Peay vs. Queens | Mar 03 | $6 | +$6 | +100% |