Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa698…db5e sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$16,613 (+11%) realized +$12,731 · open +$3,882
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$5,642per market
Trades / day64.5pace
Fees−$1,355est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$10,886now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$21,540
sports 47% +$5,814
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +23.3% +11.5% 62% 58% +5.1%
≤30d 26 +22.5% +10.9% 62% 58% +4.5%
≤90d 26 +22.5% +10.9% 62% 58% +4.5%
all 26 +22.5% +10.9% 62% 58% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.9% 58% +4.5%
10% +0.3% 58% -5.5%
15% ← realistic here -9.4% 38% -14.6%
20% -18.3% 35% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$7,154) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,735 vs −$3,628 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$10,886
Realized+$12,731
Unrealized+$3,882
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$1,355
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5,642
Trades / day64.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 88¢ $4,321 $7,270 +$2,950 (+68%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 73¢ 98¢ $2,683 $3,615 +$932 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35,765 +$9,173 +26%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,985 −$1,985 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4,412 +$2,941 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $2,525 +$4,901 +194%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4,164 +$4,512 +108%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,794 +$882 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,720 +$956 +35%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $4,275 +$4,107 +96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,706 +$2,647 +56%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,471 +$4,588 +186%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $9,163 −$6,691 -73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,441 +$1,912 +35%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,588 −$5,516 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $9,736 −$9,157 -94%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $282 −$282 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,294 +$4,412 +43%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,817 +$4,859 +127%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $11,572 +$9,090 +79%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,843 +$4,112 +223%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3,828 −$3,230 -84%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $614 +$26 +4%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $658 −$435 -66%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10,939 −$7,587 -69%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,969 −$1,305 -66%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7,154 −$96 -1%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,244 +$640 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $82 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $163 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $1,044 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $3 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $867 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $21 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $2 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $17 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $110 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $18 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $1 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $5 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $1 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $1,433 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $551 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $3 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $789 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $78 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $104 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $127 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $111 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $125 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $118 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $118 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $107 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $116 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $120 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $128 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $124 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $130 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,885.61 · official $10,885.61 (match) · 540 history records