Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:10:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa6a0…4469 sports 375 markets active 21h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22,730 (+8%) realized +$22,730 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate69%259W / 116L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$770per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$687est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,207
7 days−$1,463
14 days−$321
30 days+$4,141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 67% +$11,201
sports 30% +$13,554
crypto 1% −$2,504
other 1% −$1,536
politics 0% −$17
tech 0% +$176
world 0% +$278
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -15.6% -23.6% 56% 56% -34.6%
≤30d 64 +10.2% -0.3% 64% 61% -6.0%
≤90d 165 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 63% -1.7%
all 375 +0.4% -9.1% 69% 61% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 61% -2.9%
10% -17.8% 45% -12.2%
15% -25.8% 28% -20.7%
20% -33.1% 18% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$150 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22,730
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses259 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$687
Open positions0
Markets (closed)375 / 375
History coverage601d
Avg bet$770
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 375 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $500 −$494 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $300 −$296 -99%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $1,426 −$1,417 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $76 +$45 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $701 +$174 +25%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $699 +$291 +42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $702 +$163 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $63 −$63 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $50 +$28 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $77 +$44 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $173 +$132 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $204 +$73 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $125 +$45 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $279 +$10 +4%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $64 +$53 +83%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $52 +$50 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $78 +$15 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,015 +$393 +39%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $56 +$22 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 07 $152 +$98 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $253 +$54 +21%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $49 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $150 +$51 +34%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $76 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $77 +$80 +104%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $28 +$40 +146%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $51 +$28 +55%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $67 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $76 +$51 +67%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $177 +$101 +57%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $56 +$41 +73%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $78 +$49 +62%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $35 +$23 +65%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 03 $77 +$30 +40%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $420 +$192 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $179 +$116 +65%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $276 +$162 +59%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Ilia Simakin Jun 01 $19 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 31 $50 −$49 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $98 +$39 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $500 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $300 40h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 42h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 42h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $35 42h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 42h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 42h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $33 42h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $73 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 98¢ $875 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $701 2d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 29¢ $49 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 28¢ $51 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1099 history records